This War Will End When Zionism Does

 This War Will End When Zionism Does

Jim Kavanagh

Iranian strike on the Bazan oil refinery in Haifa, Israel’s largest oil hub, March 30^th

We’re now into the second month of the USraeli war on Iran—a war in which, I have said, we must “stand, and work, for the defeat of USrael.” We cannot celebrate a victory that is not yet won, and the extent of which we cannot be certain. At this point, however, I've seen enough to be hopeful that USrael’s defeat is the outcome in progress.

We should not forget that the ostensible, announced purposes of this war, centered on Iran’s capabilities, especially those confusedly articulated by the U.S. administration, are not the real, larger purpose, set by Israel—which is the defense and extension of the Zionist project in the region. That requires, per the Yinon Plan, that  Israel must  “become an imperial regional power, and …effect the division of the whole area into small states by the dissolution of all existing Arab states”—and, of course, Iran. For Israel, the destruction of the Iranian state is a key, but only one, element in the buttressing of the Zionist project, which is both advancing and under threat as never before.  

Though I join many others in thinking that failure to destroy the Iranian polity would fatally weaken Israel and the Zionist project, it is not impossible that Israel could retreat on the Iranian front, recompose, and continue to ravage the region for an indefinite time. Especially if it continues to have American support. The loss of American support—and I mean the U.S. polity breaking with and renouncing Zionism as it did South African apartheid—would be more devastating to Israel than any particular result in Iran, though such an outcome would be made more likely by a failure in Iran that was costly to the U.S.

This is a war for and over Zionism (under the protection of U.S. imperialism) through Iran. Iran is acting as the principal protagonist of and impediment to   of Zionism at this moment.

We cannot forget that USrael has neutered most Arab states into explicit or implicit Abraham-accord puppies of Zionism; that Israel is still controlling Syria; that it has destroyed and is occupying and continuing to devastate Gaza; that it is carrying out an accelerated pogrom of the West Bank; and that it has initiated a new Nakba in Lebanon, displacing a million people who “will not be allowed to return any time soon” (i.e., ever) and is indiscriminately bombing residential areas of Beirut (under the Dahiyeh Doctrine, “do[ing] what we did in Gaza"), with no challenge—indeed, hardly any notice—from the “international community.” Per the head of the Knesset Committee on Internal Affairs and the Environment, Israel has "no other choice but to expel and clear the entire territory up to the Litani River, to cleanse it of Lebanese civilians... Sovereignty and settlement."

Apart from Iran, then, Israel’s drive to expand and dominate the region continues relentlessly, and with the customary international impunity. Zionism requires.

https://x.com/DaniMayakovski/status/2034808904040030376?s=20

This is all one big war for Zionism now—not just USrael vs. Iran, but Zionism vs. the World, the First Zionist World War. USrael will not be defeated until Zionism is—until Israeli troops are forced to leave Gaza and Lebanon in order to take a last, losing stand for Zionism on and for the territory of Green-Line Israel.

It’s not the only source of conflict, but, as I think is becoming clearer to more people every day, there will be no peace in the Middle East (and therefore the world) until and unless Zionism is defeated and deleted.

However well Iran does in re-setting the world stage, then, stay in your seats. There’s going to be a lot more commotion before the fat lady sings.

Nonetheless, given the material, military, economic, political, and ideological conditions under which this war started and has been progressing for the past month, certain very hopeful trends that seem impossible to reverse have become clear.

First, and crucially important, the Islamic Republic regime (and I don't use that word in a pejorative sense, but to denote a political and cultural apparatus wider than “the government”) is standing firm. Not only has it not collapsed after the assassination of Ali Khameni, Larijani, et. al., as some USsraeli fools expected, it has become stronger, more unified, more militant, and backed by wider, more adamant popular support. That’s precisely as a result of the assassinations and of USraeli attacks on civilians, like the vicious double-tap murder, via thermobaric incineration, of over 160 school children.

I think it was the US faction of USraeli fools who most expected the regime to collapse. Most of the Israeli faction knew that it would not and/or did not care. Sure, they would have loved an easy victory, but they were not counting on it, as the clueless Americans were, and it also serves the Israeli’s purpose to have an angrier, more militant Iranian government and people who will fight harder. All the better to persuade Israel’s American fools that unrestrained “death and destruction,” including ultimately with nuclear weapons, must be visited upon Iran. Israel was never seeking to change the Iranian regime; it was and is seeking to destroy the Iranian polity.

I should say, too, that I’m uneasy with the response that sloughs these murders off, or romanticizes them, because "martyrs." Sure, killing these leaders won't destroy, and in the context of Shia culture will likely harden, Iranian resistance. But good leaders—especially, in a war context, exceptional military leaders like Ali Larijani—are not a dime a dozen, not interchangeable. These assassinations are real hits, and Iran has to get better at preventing them, if not directly retaliating on equivalent USraeli personnel (without levelling whole apartment blocks). We need victors, not martyrs.

At any rate, after a month of assassinations of its leaders and  “death and destruction from the sky all day long,” the Islamic Republic of Iran stands and fights, harder and smarter every day. The idea that it’s going to be “toppled” like Saddam’s statue in Firdos square (named after the Persian word for “paradise”) by some USrael “shock and awe” and/or by a CIA-Mossad-armed revolution led by Pahlavi and the Shahs of Sunset is gone, baby, gone—belied by the hundreds of drones and missiles hitting Israeli towns and US bases and comprador Arab support infrastructure, and the millions of Iranians in the streets demanding revenge and victory, every day. That fact alone constitutes victory for Iran, means that Iran has already won a victory that will every day become harder for USrael to reverse.

Iran is not only standing up and fighting back, it is, to USrael’s dismay and astonishment, taking control of the situation. It has used its own carefully developed and accumulated military assets—eschewing expensive fighter jets for a vast array of cheaper-to-produce and easier-to-replenish drones and missiles—along with, presumably, ISR, EW, air-defense, and targeting assistance from Russia and China, to carry out a shrewdly layered, very effective offense.

Iran started by immediately taking out USrael’s eyes and ears—long-range, not-easily-replaceable radars and surveillance assets worth billions. It then threw swarms of cheaper, older drones and missiles that USrael had to exhaust more expensive and more precious air defense interceptors shooting down. It followed with more advanced and more destructive precision missiles that have been very effective in striking military targets in Israel and throughout the region, without hitting schools.

Iran has not initiated, nor has it been reluctant to retaliate for, strikes on crucial energy production infrastructure, including natural gas and oil production facilities and nuclear power plants—the last,  most dangerous escalation initiated by USraeli attacks on Busheir and Natanz, with Iran retaliating against Dimona, and everybody being careful, so far, not to hit the reactor buildings themselves. So far, but it’s a very dangerous game, especially for Israel, a tiny country that risks becoming Chernobyl in the Levant.

https://x.com/aleksbrz11/status/2035485132937634263?s=20

So, Iran is not backing down, but demonstrating more confidence and willingness, even eagerness, to not just fight off, but take the fight to, the USraeli military machine. According to the NYT, Iran has “severely damaged” American military bases in the region, “forcing many American troops to relocate [i.e., retreat] to hotels and office spaces.” American ships are staying away from the Persian Gulf, and its most advanced carrier is limping home with a devastating “laundry fire” that will put it out of commission for 14 months. Despite heavy censorship, it’s clear that Iran has done massive damage to Tel Aviv, Dimona, and Arad. Israel is “running critically low” on missile interceptors, while, according to Israeli sources, Iranian missile strikes have an astounding 80% success rate. Israel’s been “shocked by Hezbollah capabilities” in Lebanon, and the IDF Chief of Staff warns that the IDF might “collapse in on itself” in the face of growing pressures.

Israel and the US are hiding the true extent of damage and casualties, but we can see enough to know they are taking serious hits.

US KC-135 refueling tankers and E-3G “Sentry” Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) Aircraft damaged and destroyed by Iran at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia

The Neot Hovav industrial zone south of Beersheba. Israel’s largest chemical and hazardous waste complex struck by an Iranian ballistic missile

In addition, through its control of the Strait of Hormuz and its ability to destroy the energy infrastructure of the Gulf states, Iran has control of the economic fate of the world, as well as the political fate of POTUS. Iran has struck one of the world’s largest oil refineries in Bahrain and the world's largest liquified natural gas (LNG) complex, Ras Laffan in Qatar. The price of benchmark Brent Crude Oil has doubled to ~$120/barrel and will keep rising, with gas pump prices in tow. It has only just begun, and $6+/gallon gas, and rising, will wake up even the most somnambulant American.

The consequences of the strike on Qatar are even worse. Ras Laffan is a huge complex comprised of unique, very expensive equipment that will take years to replace. It produces LNG and chemicals that are essential for products from plastics to fertilizers. It also produces helium, which is essential to chip manufacturing.

Many crucial suppliers of essential components of modern life in the Gulf have had to invoke the force majeure exception to contracts they cannot fulfill. Iran has effectively taken control of supply chains for a range of critical activities, from planting crops to making semiconductors. Iran is not only controlling the Strait of Hormuz, but also affecting whether there is anything produced in the Gulf to go through it.  Iran holds economic trump cards.

Let’s recognize how, with this stance, Iran has changed the world. For thirty years since the demise of the Soviet Union, the United States assumed it had the power and prerogative to start and to end conflicts. It assumed, correctly, that it had absolute escalation dominance—that it would be able to attack almost any country at will and that it would be able to call off the attack when it felt like it, that no country would dare to continue fighting the US if it offered a ceasefire.

That was true until the Ukraine conflict, where Russia has refused a ceasefire with the US/NATO-partnered army arrayed against it, when the latter needed a break. Of course, Russia is a nuclear superpower, but still the US/NATO find it hard to believe.  But the notion that a “middle power” that’s not even perceived as dominant in its own region would, given the chance, hesitate for a second to get out of a fight with the nuclear-armed U.S. and its nuclear-armed ward state, Israel—a double whammy of assumed omnipotence—is literally unthinkable to neocon exceptionalists.

“Literally,” as in they do not believe it, and they have no idea how to react to it. The US leadership cannot conceive that it hasn’t already won, or at least intimidated Iran enough to make it back off while USrael catches a breath. Trump is reduced to incoherently boasting about having already won, making and postponing ultimata, conjuring up fictional negotiations, and frantically suing for a ceasefire through Arab or Pakistani or whatever intermediaries, only to have Iran send it to voicemail. In an unprecedented action of a combatant nation with its enemy, to cope with the precarious position Iran’s successful defense and counteroffensive has put it in, the US has had to officially lift some of its sanctions on Iranian oil!

It has also had to watch the oil market erase the sanctions effect entirely:

https://x.com/tparsi/status/2036173360183361997?s=20

This is game-changing and world-changing. For decades, no country that’s come under military attack by the US has been, or has thought itself, capable of inflicting so much damage so quickly on the American military machine.  That fact, and, importantly, that perception, of the US’s overwhelming, uncontestable military and economic power has been the keystone of the American exceptionalist “rules-based order” for over thirty years. It is gone.

Countries around the world are seeing that American weaponry is sophisticated, but not invulnerable—in fact, very expensive, kind of fragile, and hardly inexhaustible. Regional, “middle” powers see that, with a surfeit of smart drones and hypersonic and precision missiles, along with a good working alliance with Russia and/or China, a political determination to defend the homeland, and a strategy for asymmetric warfare, it is possible to make any regime-change attack by the US more militarily, economically and politically costly than was imaginable a month ago. China is now mass-producing hypersonic missiles for sale at $99,000. US battleships aircraft carriers are not parking near the door. The fear factor has diminished, the willingness to resist increased.

With all requisite caution that we don’t know for certain the extent of the damage and remaining capabilities of Iran, and we can never rule out the possibility of surprise in warfare (some super “discombobulator” in waiting?), we can, based on known military, economic, and political factors and consistent historical precedents, say with very high confidence that the grotesque conjoined entity, USrael, has got itself in a trap with no good exit.

Complicating matters, Eng/US has a different attitude toward and lived experience of their predicament than does Chang/Israel.

Consider, for example, that, despite Trump’s announced “pause” on attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure, his conjoined partner, Israel, is now deliberately ratcheting up what one analyst calls “a phase of reciprocal infrastructure warfare.” Israel is escalating its attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, hitting Iran’s Heavy Water Complex and its yellowcake production plant, causing the head of the IAEA to call for “military restraint to prevent any risk of a nuclear accident.” Israel is also repeatedly attacking Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant (NPP), causing the evacuation of Russian workers and leading the Russian Foreign Ministry to say: “One gets the impression that the aggressors are deliberately seeking to cause a large-scale nuclear catastrophe in the region.”  

The thing is, Israel wants catastrophe. When Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities and water reservoirs, it knows very well that Iran is going to retaliate by attacking nuclear facilities and water desalination plants in Israel and in Gulf countries supporting the USrael war. Israel wants the war to spread, wants to exacerbate regional divisions and bring the Gulf countries into the war as direct combatants, wants the US and those countries in a ground war against Iran. That’s because Israel’s objective in the war, and the reason it is happening, is to destroy the Iranian state as an obstacle to the Jewish-supremacist Zionist project of killing, expelling, and subjugating Palestinians, and expanding and settling Greater Israel. Israel knows how strong Iran is and thinks the only way it can achieve that is by upending the region in a way that gets and keeps its stronger conjoined partner in the fight.

Meanwhile, Trump and US leaders cannot coherently express this objective because it's not theirs. They know perfectly well, and would like to avoid, the politically and economically disastrous-to-themselves quagmire they are diving into. But they have for so long been so tightly conjoined with such strong financial and ideological filaments that they just can’t bear to tear away from their “revered” brother. So, to their constituents and to themselves, they couch their objective in terms that seem relevant, acceptable, and make war necessary to Americans. Since there are none that hold—there is no US objective regarding nuclear weapons, oil, or geopolitical advantage over China that could not be achieved without this costly and self-destructive war—they come up with whatever they think might fly at the moment. They’ve cycled through so many so fast that they’ve arrived at the patently ridiculous, "We're fighting to restore the status quo ante bellum."

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2038241401402737114?s=20

https://x.com/TheMaverickWS/status/2038439655386026060?s=20

Meanwhile, the real Zionist objective remains in play, and Israel will do everything to make sure it’s achieved. Whether the US will go forward with the “ground component” that Netanyahu says is necessary, we shall see, though it’s looking increasingly likely. The Washington Post reports that the Pentagon is preparing for ground operations that will last months, including a possible seizure of Kharg (or some other) Island in the Persian Gulf—an operation a former 82^nd Airborne commander says is “completely absurd.” Indeed, every military analyst I’ve seen understands that these island-grabbing or shoreline-foothold operations, even if immediately “successful,” will create nothing but enclaves of US soldiers under constant siege from the surrounding army of a million men and a country of 92 million people.

It’s so depressing to see, after almost 60 years, the same stupid game being played. Iran is four times larger and twice as populous as Vietnam was 60 years ago. The US spent ten years, with 500,000 troops in theater, bombing the crap out of Vietnam and Laos and Cambodia, and lost, and tore our country apart. With 7-10,000 troops and 12% popular support, good luck with the battle of Khe Sanh Kharg Island.  

https://x.com/nxt888/status/2035624861520052709?s=20

Trump may think he’s going to strike some blow that will intimidate Iran into capitulating—or agreeing to return to the status quo ante bellum, which he’ll pitch as the greatest win ever, to give himself the much-discussed “off-ramp” from a longer war. But everybody knows, at this point, that Trump is an ignorant fool who does not understand what he is doing and cannot be trusted. Everybody, certainly Israel, knows none of this is going to work.

Iran will win because it cannot be defeated. It is now adamant. It cannot and should not trust Trump or the Americans. As long as it can—and, especially given Russian and Chinese support, there’s no limit we can reliably put on that—it will not stop fighting until its demands are met. Those demands will include things like the elimination of US military presence from the region, removal of all sanctions, reparations, ongoing control of the Hormuz Strait, etc.—demands that are completely unacceptable to USrael.

Iran, like Russia in Ukraine, is saying “We will not stop fighting until we’ve solved the root causes of the problem.” For Russia, the root problem is the expansion of NATO, and it can only be solved by a new European-Russian security arrangement that requires the reining in of NATO and the elimination of the fascist regime in Kiev. For Iran, the root problem is Israel and the Zionist project, and it can only be solved by a regional arrangement that ensures Iran’s and the region’s security from further US or Israeli aggression. That requires, minimally, the enforced restriction and, for real security the elimination, of the Zionist project. Unfortunately, as we are seeing quite clearly, the United States is much more committed to the Zionist/Israel than to the NATO/Kiev, project.

Please understand the importance of this. Consider that the Secretary of State is saying of that NATO project in Ukraine: “This is not our war,” in a screed directly demanding the NATO make Iran its war. No matter how ridiculous that is at every level, it demonstrates the real, absolute priority of the commitment to Israel over anything else—a commitment that’s been expressed and honored by, and required of, every presidential administration and every major politician of both parties.

Taking the off-ramp, walking away, from Ukraine would mean entirely stopping weapons transfers, funding, intelligence sharing, etc., leaving Ukraine to fight Russia on its own and lose, and being willing to sit back and watch the Russian army defeat the Ukrainian army, march into Kiev, and sign an agreement on Russia’s terms with its approved replacement for Zelensky. It is hard to imagine the US doing that, and accepting the consequences to its own position in the world that wo     uld bring.

If the US does that because “We gave Ukraine no ‘security guarantees,’ Russia’s a nuclear-armed superpower and we don't want to start World War III, and/or we have something else that’s so much more important for us it requires our undivided support, whatever the consequences”—well, that’s not impossible, but it would be a helluva choice. In fact, it might be happening. There would be furious resistance from the Deep State, but Donald Trump could do it.

Well, taking some “off-ramp,” walking away, from the Iran War would mean nothing if it did not mean foregoing any “security guarantee” and arms supplies to Israel, leaving it to fight Iran on its own and lose, being willing to sit back and watch it be defeated by Iran, and watch the Palestinian resistance forces march into Jerusalem to sign an agreement on their terms with their approved replacement for Netanyahu, and accepting the consequences to—the end of—the Zionist project in the world that would bring.

Whatever intentions or preferences are floating around in his head, Donald Trump cannot do this. The Deep Deep State would only allow him to walk away from Ukraine because it is absolutely imperative that he not walk away from Israel. The generations of political, academic, and cultural leaders, and oligarchic donors, pledging their absolute, “If this Capitol crumbled to the ground,” loyalty to and “reverence” for Israel will not allow such a thing.

Eng just cannot tear himself away from Chang. It really is that tight. There is nothing like it.

Israel will continue to do anything it wants, to whomever it wants, whenever it wants. The argument over whether it’s acting with or without USG approval is irrelevant. As Sayed Maranci says, either the USG explicitly signs off on every Israeli attack, or, stricken by self-induced brotherly Zionist paralysis, does nothing of what it could do to stop Israel from defying its wishes. In either case, the USG is fully complicit and responsible. And, in either case, since Israel will do what it wants anyway, Iran sees no point in negotiating with the USG.

Whatever Trump wants, he cannot stop either Iran or Israel from fighting. And where Israel fights, so does the US.

There will be no off-ramp from the Iran War without an off-ramp from Zionism. There will be no peace in the Middle East (and therefore the world) until and unless there is a political upheaval here that tears the United States government from Zionism—a process that will be as excruciatingly difficult as my conjoined-twin analogy is meant to imply.

This war is just beginning, and it’s going to get very bad, very fast. There is going to be massive reciprocal destruction of energy infrastructure and civilian cities. It’s going to provoke economic crises. It’s going to provoke political crises—in the US, to be sure, and especially in Gulf Arab regimes, which will have to decide quickly whether to break with the USraeli program and eject American bases or join it in attacking Iran. We may see the overthrow of some regimes, particularly those with large Shia populations, like Bahrain. We will see a chaotic period of new divisions and new alignments. We may also see Donald Trump get sick and resign. It will be discombobulation everywhere.

Because of Iran’s strength and persistence, we will almost certainly see the use of nuclear weapons by Israel—the only thing USrael can think might force Iran’s capitulation. That, in turn, could easily morph into a world war. However this war “ends” (whatever that means), it is likely that there will be more nuclear weapons states in the region. The only way to prevent that, if anyone were really interested in doing so, would be an enforceable ban on all such weapons, including Israel’s. Iran should, in fact, refuse to discuss nuclear weapons except in the context of such a comprehensive ban. We are heading toward a reconfiguration of the security architecture of West Asia that is either dictated by or, I hope, forced on the US and Israel.

This is the dangerous, chaotic upheaval we are in the midst of. There are a hundred rational arguments—political, diplomatic, economic, ethical, and those appealing to geopolitical self-interest—that can and have been made, demonstrating how foolish and dangerous this is for every country involved. Everyone must understand that Zionist Israel, which is driving this, DOES NOT CARE about any of those arguments or considerations. Israel knows it will cause chaos and put itself at risk, and thinks it will all end up working to the benefit of its Zionist Greater Israel project. The bet is made. It is not in any sense rational. and will not be withdrawn in response to any argument. Israel, USrael, is a rampaging global force in the grip of a fanatical, racist/exceptionalist obsession called Zionism.

I don’t know how this can “end” or what the world will be like on the other side of it. But it will be different. We are in one of those conjunctures the man so aptly described: "There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.”  I saw the glorious day, after ten years of body counts and millions of lives lost, when American helicopters were frantically loading up and fleeing the US embassy in Saigon Ho Chi Minh City, in ignominious and well-deserved defeat. It will not take ten years for this conflict to resolve, and I would like to celebrate the day the US withdraws, once and for all, from the long, criminal, and self-destructive war it's been fighting for Zionism.

That’s a very tall order, but decades have happened over the past eighteen months, and though that outcome is still nearly, it is not anymore absolutely impossible. We must do everything we can to make it so.

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